Falling unemployment, increased taxable sales and increasing personal earnings spelled good signs for the economy in Southern Nevada, according to the Southern Nevada Real Estate Report for 2013 4th Quarter. But most areas, including most housing industry metrics, are still significantly below pre-recession levels, according to the report, published by the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, the UNLV Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies and the Commercial Alliance of Las Vegas.
Southern Nevada continues to recover from the Great Recession and experience slow economic growth. In the fourth quarter 2013, the unemployment rate in the Las Vegas metropolitan area fell to 8.97 percent. This decline is due to growth in private employment and drops in labor force participation. Employment, however, remains below pre-recession levels by 1.2 percent.
The report notes some strong spending numbers, total taxable sales of $8,267 million and spending on motor vehicles and car parts of $956 million in the quarter, for instance. [Note: The report presents the taxable sales and motor vehicle and car parts sales in billions but, as we verified from Luis A. Lopez of the Lied Institute, the correct figures are in millions.] These figures the report cites as positive indicators, notably for the housing market.
Besides employment growth, increases in local earnings encouraged this behavior.
This is good because it implies that local businesses are generating revenue and households in Southern Nevada are regaining economic strength.
These drivers of the local housing market set a positive tone even though housing distress persists.
Other positive signs indicated by the report,
In the commercial real estate market, demand for space should increase in all three major categories: industrial, office and retail. For at least three years, jobs in office and retail have gone up consistently. The industrial job market has lagged, but has enjoyed growth throughout 2013. If the local economy continues this quarter’s positive trajectory, market conditions in the near future will likely offer stronger business opportunities.
Private jobs in Clark County increased to 897,130 in the fourth quarter, up over 42,000 from mid-2010 though still off the pre-recession peak of 907,970. Construction jobs in Clark County declined in the quarter, to 40,900 in December from 42,900 in October. Of all industries, Trade, Transportation & Utilities gained the most jobs, 9,600, while Leisure and Hospitality lost the most in the quarter, according to the report.
Despite the drop in Leisure and Hospitality employment, the report contains data showing positive signs for the industry in the quarter. The number of Las Vegas convention attendees was up to 6,290 in the fourth quarter, a significant increase from the 5,370 in the fourth quarter of 2012. In addition, three of the four quarters in 2013 showed a year-over-year increase in convention attendees. McCarran Airport passengers in Q4 2013 were the highest of any quarter during the last three years.
Foreclosure and distress sale activity continued its decline in the fourth quarter. Less than 30% of the 8,800 home sales in the quarter were short or REO sales. Delinquency rates have fallen by more than half since their peak in 2009.
The foreclosure inventory is down to 4% from 10.4%. While this is a continuing improvement, for comparison purposes, during the boom this rate was less than 1%.